I've been cooking and weaving on and off here and there, so here's a few tips on how to figure it out.
When you see white, it can go either way no matter what choice you pick. You might succeed, you might fail, it's a toss up (the harder the recipe from your rank, the more likely you'll fail regardless).
But... if you start seeing yellow, you've got a pretty good chance of succeeding. I usually head towards the rapid stuff to quickly finish up what I'm making if it's not a wearable or edible piece.
Red means you're bound to fail, however, so try to wait and see if it changes color.
I still haven't figured out the deal with the orb pulsating and the sparks, but when I get those, it usually means my crafting is going downhill fast.
So...
- white = 50/50
- yellow = you've a good chance at succeeding no matter what you pick
- red = wait
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